YX 4801 · DCA → PHL

departs 5:32 PM ET · arrives 6:58 PM ET

Forecast issued Sun 9:00 AM ET · 8h before departure

Arrive at PHL more than 15 minutes late?

36% chance · ±0 pts – · 24h

HOW SURE WE ARE Good. The odds now lean mostly on firmed-up weather forecasts.

How late will it get to PHL?

On time or early
64%
15–30 min late
8%
30 min–1 hour late
17%
1–2 hours late
7%
Over 2 hours late
4%
Cancelled
<1%

Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.

What’s moving the odds

↑ 5pm departures from DCA are often late

↑ Cloud base down to 300 ft, visibility down to 2 mi forecast at PHL that day

↑ Arrivals into PHL at that hour are often late

↓ Sundays in October are usually quieter than average

↓ YX's recent on-time record

Weather at each end

DCA (origin) Gusts10 kt Ceiling200 ft Visibility2.5 mi Precip0.12 in

PHL (destination) Gusts13 kt Ceiling700 ft Visibility8 mi Precip0.12 in

How this resolves

Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.

Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.

YX 4801 · DCA → PHL

Odds over time

How late will it get to PHL?