Tracked live by the FAA, but its flight plan was first seen after takeoff, so we don't know the scheduled time and can't say whether it's late.

REPUBLIC · FLIGHT YX 4802 IN THE AIR (OFF 9:01 AM ET, ETA 10:17 AM ET) · SCHEDULED TIME UNKNOWN

Sunday, October 4 Today

YX 4802 · DCA → SDF

took off 9:01 AM ET · expected to land 10:17 AM ET (scheduled time unknown)

Forecast issued Sun 7:00 AM ET · 2h before departure

Arrive at SDF more than 15 minutes late?

14% chance · ±0 pts −1 pt · 24h

HOW SURE WE ARE High. The odds now come mostly from live FAA and airport data.

What’s moving the odds

↑ Cloud base down to 400 ft forecast at DCA that day

↑ 8am departures from DCA are often late

↑ This flight has been late 23% of the time recently

↓ Mostly benign weather forecast at SDF

↓ Early flights usually leave on time

Weather at each end

DCA (origin) Gusts9 kt Ceiling300 ft Visibility3 mi Precip0.18 in

SDF (destination) Gusts7 kt Ceilingnone (clear) Visibility10+ mi Precipnone

How this resolves

Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.

Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.

YX 4802 · DCA → SDF

Odds over time