Schedule: a typical Sunday (the flights of Jul 26, 2026, re-dated). Real flights replace these once the FAA publishes them, usually about a day ahead.

REPUBLIC · FLIGHT YX 5664 SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE

Sunday, October 4

YX 5664 · LGA → RIC

departs 7:15 AM ET · arrives 8:55 AM ET

Forecast issued Thu 9:00 PM ET · 58h before departure

Arrive at RIC more than 15 minutes late?

10% chance · ±0 pts – · 24h

HOW SURE WE ARE Moderate. The odds now blend history with early weather forecasts.

How late will it get to RIC?

On time or early
89%
15–30 min late
5%
30 min–1 hour late
1%
1–2 hours late
2%
Over 2 hours late
1%
Cancelled
1%

Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.

What’s moving the odds

↑ Cloud base down to 200 ft, visibility down to 2 mi, 1.1 in of rain forecast at RIC that day

↑ LGA is prone to delays

↑ This flight has been late 19% of the time recently

↓ Arrivals into RIC at that hour are usually not late

↓ Early flights usually leave on time

Weather at each end

LGA (origin) Gusts14 kt Ceiling1,700 ft Visibility10+ mi Precip0.03 in

RIC (destination) Gusts7 kt Ceiling200 ft Visibility2 mi Precip0.86 in

How this resolves

Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.

Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.

YX 5664 · LGA → RIC

Odds over time

How late will it get to RIC?