Schedule: a typical summer Sunday (the flights of Jul 26, 2026), re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.
REPUBLIC · FLIGHT YX 5681
SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE
Sunday, October 4
YX 5681 · LGA → CMH
departs 7:55 PM ET · arrives 10:03 PM ET
Forecast issued Fri 3:00 AM ET · 65h before departure
Watch this flight
Other days
Today 38%
Sun 10/4
Mon 10/5 24%
Tue 10/6 16%
Wed 10/7 26%
Thu 10/8 25%
Odds over time
Arrive at CMH more than 15 minutes late?
38%
chance · ±2 pts
– · 24h
HOW SURE WE ARE
Moderate. The odds now blend history with early weather forecasts.
Arrive 15+ late
38%
Leave 15+ late
32%
Arrive 1h+ late
19%
Cancelled
2%
MOSTLY HISTORY
WEATHER FORECASTS
LIVE
IN THE AIR
0%
15%
30%
45%
60%
5.9d
Now
2d
1d
12h
6h
Departs
Lands
Arrive at CMH more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 11% · changed – in 24h
–
38%
Yes 38%
No 62%
Leave LGA more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 14% · changed – in 24h
–
32%
Yes 32%
No 68%
Arrive at CMH more than an hour late?
Calm-weather odds: 6% · changed – in 24h
–
19%
Yes 19%
No 81%
Cancelled?
Calm-weather odds: <1% · changed – in 24h
–
2%
Yes 2%
No 98%
How late will it get to CMH?
On time or early
60%
15–30 min late
12%
30 min–1 hour late
7%
1–2 hours late
14%
Over 2 hours late
5%
Cancelled
2%
Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.
What’s moving the odds
↑
7pm departures from LGA are often late
↑
LGA is prone to delays
↑
Cloud base down to 400 ft, visibility down to 2 mi forecast at LGA that day
↓
Mostly benign weather forecast at CMH
↓
YX's recent on-time record
Weather at each end
LGA (origin)
Gusts 15 kt Ceiling 400 ft Visibility 2 mi Precip 0.06 in
CMH (destination)
Gusts 8 kt Ceiling none (clear) Visibility 10+ mi Precip none
How this resolves
Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.
Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.