YX 5682 · DCA → BOS

departs 5:00 PM ET · arrives 6:43 PM ET

Forecast issued Sun 5:00 AM ET · 12h before departure

Arrive at BOS more than 15 minutes late?

46% chance · ±0 pts – · 24h

HOW SURE WE ARE Good. The odds now lean mostly on firmed-up weather forecasts.

How late will it get to BOS?

On time or early
53%
15–30 min late
6%
30 min–1 hour late
15%
1–2 hours late
20%
Over 2 hours late
5%
Cancelled
<1%

Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.

What’s moving the odds

↑ 5pm departures from DCA are often late

↑ Arrivals into BOS at that hour are often late

↑ Cloud base down to 1,100 ft forecast at BOS that day

↓ Sundays in October are usually quieter than average

Weather at each end

DCA (origin) Gusts9 kt Ceiling400 ft Visibility3 mi Precip0.16 in

BOS (destination) Gusts15 kt Ceiling1,100 ft Visibility6 mi Precip0.13 in

How this resolves

Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.

Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.

YX 5682 · DCA → BOS

Odds over time

How late will it get to BOS?