YX 5687 · DCA → BOS

departs 8:29 AM ET · arrives 10:15 AM ET

Forecast issued Sat 9:00 AM ET · 24h before departure

Arrive at BOS more than 15 minutes late?

9% chance · ±0 pts +2 pts · 24h

HOW SURE WE ARE Good. The odds now lean mostly on firmed-up weather forecasts.

How late will it get to BOS?

On time or early
90%
15–30 min late
4%
30 min–1 hour late
2%
1–2 hours late
2%
Over 2 hours late
1%
Cancelled
1%

Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.

What’s moving the odds

↑ Cloud base down to 300 ft, visibility down to 1 mi forecast at DCA that day

↑ 8am departures from DCA are often late

↑ DCA is prone to delays

↓ Sundays in October are usually quieter than average

↓ Early flights usually leave on time

Weather at each end

DCA (origin) Gusts9 kt Ceiling300 ft Visibility1 mi Precip0.06 in

BOS (destination) Gusts15 kt Ceiling6,000 ft Visibility10+ mi Precip0.02 in

How this resolves

Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.

Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.

YX 5687 · DCA → BOS

Odds over time

How late will it get to BOS?