YX 5689 · DCA → BOS

departs 6:30 PM ET · arrives 8:29 PM ET

Forecast issued Sat 10:00 PM ET · 20h before departure

Arrive at BOS more than 15 minutes late?

58% chance · ±2 pts +7 pts · 24h

HOW SURE WE ARE Good. The odds now lean mostly on firmed-up weather forecasts.

How late will it get to BOS?

On time or early
41%
15–30 min late
22%
30 min–1 hour late
14%
1–2 hours late
16%
Over 2 hours late
5%
Cancelled
3%

Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.

What’s moving the odds

↑ 6pm departures from DCA are often late

↑ Arrivals into BOS at that hour are often late

↑ Later flights pick up delays from earlier in the day

↓ Sundays in October are usually quieter than average

↓ Other factors

Weather at each end

DCA (origin) Gusts9 kt Ceiling300 ft Visibility0.8 mi Precip0.12 in

BOS (destination) Gusts15 kt Ceiling600 ft Visibility7 mi Precip0.07 in

How this resolves

Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.

Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.

YX 5689 · DCA → BOS

Odds over time

How late will it get to BOS?