Schedule: a typical summer Sunday (the flights of Jul 26, 2026), re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.
REPUBLIC · FLIGHT YX 5723
SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE
Sunday, October 4 Today
YX 5723 · MKE → LGA
departs 1:18 PM CT · arrives 4:36 PM ET
Forecast issued Sun 5:00 AM ET · 9h before departure
Watch this flight
Other days
Today
Mon 10/5 28%
Fri 10/9 17%
Odds over time
Arrive at LGA more than 15 minutes late?
31%
chance · ±0 pts
+8 pts · 24h
HOW SURE WE ARE
Good. The odds now lean mostly on firmed-up weather forecasts.
Arrive 15+ late
31%
Leave 15+ late
25%
Arrive 1h+ late
11%
Cancelled
1%
MOSTLY HISTORY
WEATHER FORECASTS
LIVE
IN THE AIR
0%
20%
40%
60%
80%
5.7d
2d
1d
Now
6h
Departs
Lands
Arrive at LGA more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 13% · changed +8 pts in 24h
+8 pts
31%
Yes 31%
No 69%
Leave MKE more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 10% · changed +5 pts in 24h
+5 pts
25%
Yes 25%
No 75%
Arrive at LGA more than an hour late?
Calm-weather odds: 3% · changed +3 pts in 24h
+3 pts
11%
Yes 11%
No 89%
Cancelled?
Calm-weather odds: <1% · changed −1 pt in 24h
−1 pt
1%
Yes 1%
No 99%
How late will it get to LGA?
On time or early
68%
15–30 min late
11%
30 min–1 hour late
9%
1–2 hours late
8%
Over 2 hours late
3%
Cancelled
1%
Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.
What’s moving the odds
↑
Mostly benign weather forecast at LGA
↑
Arrivals into LGA at that hour are often late
↑
LGA is prone to delays
↓
YX's recent on-time record
↓
Mostly benign weather forecast at MKE
Weather at each end
MKE (origin)
Gusts 16 kt Ceiling 9,000 ft Visibility 10+ mi Precip 0.01 in
LGA (destination)
Gusts 14 kt Ceiling 2,200 ft Visibility 9 mi Precip 0.10 in
How this resolves
Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.
Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.