Schedule: a typical summer Monday (the flights of Jul 27, 2026), re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.
REPUBLIC · FLIGHT YX 5723
SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE
Monday, October 5
YX 5723 · MKE → LGA
departs 1:18 PM CT · arrives 4:36 PM ET
Forecast issued Sat 12:00 PM ET · 50h before departure
Watch this flight
Other days
Today 9%
Sun 10/4 27%
Mon 10/5
Fri 10/9 17%
Odds over time
Arrive at LGA more than 15 minutes late?
30%
chance · ±9 pts
−2 pts · 24h
HOW SURE WE ARE
Moderate. The odds now blend history with early weather forecasts.
Arrive 15+ late
30%
Leave 15+ late
25%
Arrive 1h+ late
9%
Cancelled
<1%
MOSTLY HISTORY
WEATHER FORECASTS
LIVE
IN THE AIR
0%
15%
30%
45%
60%
6.6d
Now
1d
12h
6h
Departs
Lands
Arrive at LGA more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 8% · changed −2 pts in 24h
−2 pts
30%
Yes 30%
No 70%
Leave MKE more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 8% · changed +0 pts in 24h
+0 pts
25%
Yes 25%
No 75%
Arrive at LGA more than an hour late?
Calm-weather odds: 3% · changed −2 pts in 24h
−2 pts
9%
Yes 9%
No 91%
Cancelled?
Calm-weather odds: <1% · changed +0 pts in 24h
+0 pts
<1%
Yes <1%
No 99%
How late will it get to LGA?
On time or early
70%
15–30 min late
13%
30 min–1 hour late
8%
1–2 hours late
6%
Over 2 hours late
3%
Cancelled
<1%
Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.
What’s moving the odds
↑
LGA is prone to delays
↑
Arrivals into LGA at that hour are often late
↑
Cloud base down to 1,067 ft forecast at LGA that day
↓
YX's recent on-time record
↓
Mostly benign weather forecast at MKE
Weather at each end
MKE (origin)
Gusts 9 kt Ceiling none (clear) Visibility 10+ mi Precip none
LGA (destination)
Gusts 24 kt Ceiling 1,067 ft Visibility 5 mi Precip none
How this resolves
Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.
Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.