Schedule: a typical summer Sunday (the flights of Jul 26, 2026), re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.
REPUBLIC · FLIGHT YX 5743
SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE
Sunday, October 4
YX 5743 · JFK → DCA
departs 9:20 PM ET · arrives 10:59 PM ET
Forecast issued Fri 12:00 AM ET · 69h before departure
Watch this flight
Other days
Today 47%
Sat 10/3 15%
Sun 10/4
Mon 10/5 23%
Tue 10/6 16%
Wed 10/7 22%
Odds over time
Arrive at DCA more than 15 minutes late?
39%
chance · ±6 pts
– · 24h
HOW SURE WE ARE
Moderate. The odds now blend history with early weather forecasts.
Arrive 15+ late
39%
Leave 15+ late
38%
Arrive 1h+ late
19%
Cancelled
7%
MOSTLY HISTORY
WEATHER FORECASTS
LIVE
IN THE AIR
0%
15%
30%
45%
60%
6.0d
Now
2d
1d
12h
6h
Departs
Lands
Arrive at DCA more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 15% · changed – in 24h
–
39%
Yes 39%
No 61%
Leave JFK more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 13% · changed – in 24h
–
38%
Yes 38%
No 62%
Arrive at DCA more than an hour late?
Calm-weather odds: 6% · changed – in 24h
–
19%
Yes 19%
No 81%
Cancelled?
Calm-weather odds: <1% · changed – in 24h
–
7%
Yes 7%
No 93%
How late will it get to DCA?
On time or early
57%
15–30 min late
6%
30 min–1 hour late
12%
1–2 hours late
13%
Over 2 hours late
5%
Cancelled
7%
Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.
What’s moving the odds
↑
9pm departures from JFK are often late
↑
Arrivals into DCA at that hour are often late
↑
JFK is prone to delays
↓
YX's recent on-time record
↓
Sundays in October are usually quieter than average
Weather at each end
JFK (origin)
Gusts 17 kt Ceiling 1,300 ft Visibility 5 mi Precip 0.09 in
DCA (destination)
Gusts 9 kt Ceiling 1,300 ft Visibility 10+ mi Precip 0.40 in
How this resolves
Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.
Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.