Schedule: a typical summer Sunday (the flights of Jul 26, 2026), re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.
REPUBLIC · FLIGHT YX 5769
SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE
Sunday, October 4 Tomorrow
YX 5769 · BNA → DCA
departs 11:40 AM CT · arrives 2:34 PM ET
Forecast issued Sat 10:00 AM ET · 27h before departure
Watch this flight
Other days
Today 26%
Sun 10/4
Mon 10/5 12%
Fri 10/9 11%
Odds over time
Arrive at DCA more than 15 minutes late?
22%
chance · ±0 pts
−13 pts · 24h
HOW SURE WE ARE
Moderate. The odds now blend history with early weather forecasts.
Arrive 15+ late
22%
Leave 15+ late
26%
Arrive 1h+ late
6%
Cancelled
1%
MOSTLY HISTORY
WEATHER FORECASTS
LIVE
IN THE AIR
0%
15%
30%
45%
60%
5.6d
2d
Now
12h
6h
Departs
Lands
Arrive at DCA more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 10% · changed −13 pts in 24h
−13 pts
22%
Yes 22%
No 78%
Leave BNA more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 11% · changed −4 pts in 24h
−4 pts
26%
Yes 26%
No 74%
Arrive at DCA more than an hour late?
Calm-weather odds: 3% · changed −3 pts in 24h
−3 pts
6%
Yes 6%
No 94%
Cancelled?
Calm-weather odds: <1% · changed −1 pt in 24h
−1 pt
1%
Yes 1%
No 99%
How late will it get to DCA?
On time or early
77%
15–30 min late
8%
30 min–1 hour late
7%
1–2 hours late
4%
Over 2 hours late
3%
Cancelled
1%
Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.
What’s moving the odds
↑
Cloud base down to 300 ft, visibility down to 1 mi forecast at DCA that day
↑
Arrivals into DCA at that hour are often late
↑
This flight has been late 33% of the time recently
↓
Sundays in October are usually quieter than average
↓
YX's recent on-time record
Weather at each end
BNA (origin)
Gusts 11 kt Ceiling 700 ft Visibility 7 mi Precip none
DCA (destination)
Gusts 9 kt Ceiling 300 ft Visibility 0.7 mi Precip 0.06 in
How this resolves
Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.
Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.