Schedule: a typical summer Sunday (the flights of Jul 26, 2026), re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.
REPUBLIC · FLIGHT YX 5775
SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE
Sunday, October 4
YX 5775 · LGA → MEM
departs 8:15 PM ET · arrives 10:29 PM CT
Forecast issued Fri 2:00 PM ET · 54h before departure
Watch this flight
Other days
Today 69%
Sun 10/4
Mon 10/5 26%
Wed 10/7 29%
Odds over time
Arrive at MEM more than 15 minutes late?
53%
chance · ±3 pts
– · 24h
HOW SURE WE ARE
Moderate. The odds now blend history with early weather forecasts.
Arrive 15+ late
53%
Leave 15+ late
50%
Arrive 1h+ late
19%
Cancelled
5%
MOSTLY HISTORY
WEATHER FORECASTS
LIVE
IN THE AIR
0%
20%
40%
60%
80%
5.9d
Now
1d
12h
6h
Departs
Lands
Arrive at MEM more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 13% · changed – in 24h
–
53%
Yes 53%
No 47%
Leave LGA more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 17% · changed – in 24h
–
50%
Yes 50%
No 50%
Arrive at MEM more than an hour late?
Calm-weather odds: 4% · changed – in 24h
–
19%
Yes 19%
No 81%
Cancelled?
Calm-weather odds: <1% · changed – in 24h
–
5%
Yes 5%
No 95%
How late will it get to MEM?
On time or early
45%
15–30 min late
16%
30 min–1 hour late
15%
1–2 hours late
13%
Over 2 hours late
5%
Cancelled
5%
Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.
What’s moving the odds
↑
Cloud base down to 300 ft, visibility down to 1 mi forecast at LGA that day
↑
8pm departures from LGA are often late
↑
LGA is prone to delays
↓
YX's recent on-time record
↓
Other factors
Weather at each end
LGA (origin)
Gusts 15 kt Ceiling 300 ft Visibility 1 mi Precip 0.11 in
MEM (destination)
Gusts 17 kt Ceiling 900 ft Visibility 8 mi Precip 0.09 in
How this resolves
Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.
Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.