YX 5777 · DCA → BNA

departs 3:10 PM ET · arrives 4:15 PM CT

Forecast issued Sat 6:00 PM ET · 21h before departure

Arrive at BNA more than 15 minutes late?

31% chance · ±2 pts −5 pts · 24h

HOW SURE WE ARE Good. The odds now lean mostly on firmed-up weather forecasts.

How late will it get to BNA?

On time or early
68%
15–30 min late
12%
30 min–1 hour late
10%
1–2 hours late
7%
Over 2 hours late
3%
Cancelled
1%

Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.

What’s moving the odds

↑ 3pm departures from DCA are often late

↑ Cloud base down to 300 ft, visibility down to 0.8 mi forecast at DCA that day

↑ Arrivals into BNA at that hour are often late

↓ Sundays in October are usually quieter than average

↓ Other factors

Weather at each end

DCA (origin) Gusts9 kt Ceiling300 ft Visibility0.8 mi Precip0.09 in

BNA (destination) Gusts12 kt Ceiling1,100 ft Visibility5 mi Precipnone

How this resolves

Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.

Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.

YX 5777 · DCA → BNA

Odds over time

How late will it get to BNA?