Schedule: a typical summer Sunday (the flights of Jul 26, 2026), re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.
REPUBLIC · FLIGHT YX 5828
SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE
Sunday, October 4
YX 5828 · LGA → CLT
departs 1:59 PM ET · arrives 4:11 PM ET
Forecast issued Fri 5:00 PM ET · 45h before departure
Watch this flight
Other days
Today 16%
Sat 10/3 14%
Sun 10/4
Mon 10/5 15%
Odds over time
Arrive at CLT more than 15 minutes late?
19%
chance · ±4 pts
−4 pts · 24h
HOW SURE WE ARE
Moderate. The odds now blend history with early weather forecasts.
Arrive 15+ late
19%
Leave 15+ late
20%
Arrive 1h+ late
7%
Cancelled
1%
MOSTLY HISTORY
WEATHER FORECASTS
LIVE
IN THE AIR
0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
5.7d
Now
1d
12h
6h
Departs
Lands
Arrive at CLT more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 6% · changed −4 pts in 24h
−4 pts
19%
Yes 19%
No 81%
Leave LGA more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 8% · changed −2 pts in 24h
−2 pts
20%
Yes 20%
No 80%
Arrive at CLT more than an hour late?
Calm-weather odds: 3% · changed −3 pts in 24h
−3 pts
7%
Yes 7%
No 93%
Cancelled?
Calm-weather odds: <1% · changed +0 pts in 24h
+0 pts
1%
Yes 1%
No 99%
How late will it get to CLT?
On time or early
80%
15–30 min late
5%
30 min–1 hour late
7%
1–2 hours late
4%
Over 2 hours late
3%
Cancelled
1%
Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.
What’s moving the odds
↑
Cloud base down to 200 ft, visibility down to 1 mi, 1.3 in of rain forecast at CLT that day
↑
1pm departures from LGA are often late
↑
Arrivals into CLT at that hour are often late
↓
YX's recent on-time record
↓
Sundays in October are usually quieter than average
Weather at each end
LGA (origin)
Gusts 15 kt Ceiling 300 ft Visibility 1 mi Precip 0.21 in
CLT (destination)
Gusts 9 kt Ceiling 200 ft Visibility 1 mi Precip 1.34 in
How this resolves
Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.
Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.