Schedule: a typical summer Sunday (the flights of Jul 26, 2026), re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.
REPUBLIC · FLIGHT YX 5843
SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE
Sunday, October 4 Today
YX 5843 · LGA → PIT
departs 4:05 PM ET · arrives 6:00 PM ET
Forecast issued Sat 11:00 PM ET · 17h before departure
Watch this flight
Other days
Today
Mon 10/5 19%
Fri 10/9 15%
Odds over time
Arrive at PIT more than 15 minutes late?
25%
chance · ±3 pts
+7 pts · 24h
HOW SURE WE ARE
Good. The odds now lean mostly on firmed-up weather forecasts.
Arrive 15+ late
25%
Leave 15+ late
28%
Arrive 1h+ late
12%
Cancelled
2%
MOSTLY HISTORY
WEATHER FORECASTS
LIVE
IN THE AIR
0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
5.8d
2d
1d
Now
12h
6h
Departs
Lands
Arrive at PIT more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 10% · changed +7 pts in 24h
+7 pts
25%
Yes 25%
No 75%
Leave LGA more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 13% · changed +4 pts in 24h
+4 pts
28%
Yes 28%
No 72%
Arrive at PIT more than an hour late?
Calm-weather odds: 4% · changed +0 pts in 24h
+0 pts
12%
Yes 12%
No 88%
Cancelled?
Calm-weather odds: <1% · changed +0 pts in 24h
+0 pts
2%
Yes 2%
No 98%
How late will it get to PIT?
On time or early
73%
15–30 min late
0%
30 min–1 hour late
13%
1–2 hours late
9%
Over 2 hours late
3%
Cancelled
2%
Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.
What’s moving the odds
↑
4pm departures from LGA are often late
↑
LGA is prone to delays
↑
Cloud base down to 1,300 ft forecast at LGA that day
↓
Other factors
↓
PIT usually runs smoothly
Weather at each end
LGA (origin)
Gusts 15 kt Ceiling 1,300 ft Visibility 8 mi Precip 0.07 in
PIT (destination)
Gusts 10 kt Ceiling 6,000 ft Visibility 10+ mi Precip none
How this resolves
Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.
Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.