Schedule: a typical summer Monday (the flights of Jul 27, 2026), re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.
REPUBLIC · FLIGHT YX 5843
SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE
Monday, October 5
YX 5843 · LGA → PIT
departs 4:05 PM ET · arrives 6:00 PM ET
Forecast issued Sat 7:00 PM ET · 45h before departure
Watch this flight
Other days
Today 15%
Sun 10/4 30%
Mon 10/5
Fri 10/9 15%
Odds over time
Arrive at PIT more than 15 minutes late?
18%
chance · ±10 pts
−1 pt · 24h
HOW SURE WE ARE
Moderate. The odds now blend history with early weather forecasts.
Arrive 15+ late
18%
Leave 15+ late
24%
Arrive 1h+ late
9%
Cancelled
<1%
MOSTLY HISTORY
WEATHER FORECASTS
LIVE
IN THE AIR
0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
6.7d
Now
1d
12h
6h
Departs
Lands
Arrive at PIT more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 6% · changed −1 pt in 24h
−1 pt
18%
Yes 18%
No 82%
Leave LGA more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 13% · changed −1 pt in 24h
−1 pt
24%
Yes 24%
No 76%
Arrive at PIT more than an hour late?
Calm-weather odds: 3% · changed +1 pt in 24h
+1 pt
9%
Yes 9%
No 91%
Cancelled?
Calm-weather odds: <1% · changed +0 pts in 24h
+0 pts
<1%
Yes <1%
No 99%
How late will it get to PIT?
On time or early
81%
15–30 min late
4%
30 min–1 hour late
4%
1–2 hours late
5%
Over 2 hours late
4%
Cancelled
<1%
Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.
What’s moving the odds
↑
LGA is prone to delays
↑
4pm departures from LGA are often late
↑
Later flights pick up delays from earlier in the day
↓
YX's recent on-time record
↓
Other factors
Weather at each end
LGA (origin)
Gusts 24 kt Ceiling 1,467 ft Visibility 9.33333 mi Precip none
PIT (destination)
Gusts 17 kt Ceiling 3,500 ft Visibility 10+ mi Precip none
How this resolves
Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.
Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.