YX 5857 · BNA → DCA

took off 12:48 PM CT · landed 3:01 PM ET (scheduled 11:44 AM CT → 2:42 PM ET)

Forecast issued Sun 10:00 PM ET · 9h after departure

Arrive at DCA more than 15 minutes late?

Late chance · ±0 pts +8 pts · 24h

HOW SURE WE ARE Very high. The odds now come almost entirely from live conditions.

How late did it get to DCA?

RESOLVED

On time or early
–
15–30 min late
✓
30 min–1 hour late
–
1–2 hours late
–
Over 2 hours late
–

Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.

What’s moving the odds

↑ Cloud base down to 300 ft, visibility down to 2 mi forecast at DCA that day

↑ Arrivals into DCA at that hour are often late

↑ 11am departures from BNA are often late

↓ Sundays in October are usually quieter than average

↓ DCA usually runs smoothly

Weather at each end

BNA (origin) Gusts9 kt Ceiling700 ft Visibility10+ mi Precip0.01 in

DCA (destination) Gusts10 kt Ceiling600 ft Visibility1 mi Precip0.13 in

How this resolves

Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.

Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.

YX 5857 · BNA → DCA

Odds over time

How late did it get to DCA?