YX 5861 · BNA → DCA

departs 5:03 PM CT · arrives 8:00 PM ET

Forecast issued Sun 2:00 PM ET · 4h before departure

Arrive at DCA more than 15 minutes late?

29% chance · ±0 pts −5 pts · 24h

HOW SURE WE ARE High. The odds now come mostly from live FAA and airport data.

How late will it get to DCA?

On time or early
71%
15–30 min late
10%
30 min–1 hour late
12%
1–2 hours late
5%
Over 2 hours late
2%
Cancelled
<1%

Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.

What’s moving the odds

↑ Arrivals into DCA at that hour are often late

↑ 5pm departures from BNA are often late

↑ Cloud base down to 300 ft, visibility down to 2 mi forecast at DCA that day

↓ Sundays in October are usually quieter than average

↓ DCA usually runs smoothly

Weather at each end

BNA (origin) Gusts10 kt Ceiling700 ft Visibility10+ mi Precip0.01 in

DCA (destination) Gusts10 kt Ceiling600 ft Visibility2 mi Precip0.12 in

How this resolves

Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.

Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.

YX 5861 · BNA → DCA

Odds over time

How late will it get to DCA?