Tracked live by the FAA, but its flight plan was first seen after takeoff, so we don't know the scheduled time and can't say whether it's late.

ENDEAVOR · FLIGHT 9E 4648 LANDED 10:51 PM ET, ~7 MIN LATE · SCHEDULED TIME UNKNOWN

Monday, October 5 Today

9E 4648 · MCI → RDU

took off 7:55 PM CT · landed 10:51 PM ET (scheduled time unknown)

Forecast issued Mon 9:00 PM ET · 0h before departure

Arrive at RDU more than 15 minutes late?

16% chance · ±0 pts – · 24h

HOW SURE WE ARE Very high. The odds now come almost entirely from live conditions.

What’s moving the odds

↑ Arrivals into RDU at that hour are often late

↑ 8pm departures from MCI are often late

↑ This route's recent record

↓ Mostly benign weather forecast at MCI

↓ Cloud base down to 600 ft forecast at RDU that day

Weather at each end

MCI (origin) Gusts7 kt Ceilingnone (clear) Visibility7 mi Precipnone

RDU (destination) Gusts9 kt Ceiling600 ft Visibility10+ mi Precipnone

How this resolves

Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.

Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.

9E 4648 · MCI → RDU

Odds over time