9E 4714 · MSP → MDW

departs 5:03 PM CT · arrives 6:44 PM CT

Forecast issued Mon 2:00 PM ET · 4h before departure

Arrive at MDW more than 15 minutes late?

12% chance · ±0 pts – · 24h

HOW SURE WE ARE High. The odds now come mostly from live FAA and airport data.

How late will it get to MDW?

On time or early
88%
15–30 min late
4%
30 min–1 hour late
3%
1–2 hours late
4%
Over 2 hours late
<1%
Cancelled
<1%

Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.

What’s moving the odds

↑ Arrivals into MDW at that hour are often late

↑ Later flights pick up delays from earlier in the day

↑ 5pm departures from MSP are often late

↓ Mostly benign weather forecast at MSP

↓ Mostly benign weather forecast at MDW

Weather at each end

MSP (origin) Gusts17 kt Ceiling9,000 ft Visibility9 mi Precipnone

MDW (destination) Gusts8 kt Ceilingnone (clear) Visibility10+ mi Precipnone

How this resolves

Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.

Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.

9E 4714 · MSP → MDW

Odds over time

How late will it get to MDW?