Tracked live by the FAA, but its flight plan was first seen after takeoff, so we don't know the scheduled time and can't say whether it's late.

ENDEAVOR · FLIGHT 9E 4820 LANDED 12:57 PM CT, ~5 MIN LATE · SCHEDULED TIME UNKNOWN

Monday, October 5 Today

9E 4820 · MSP → MDW

took off 11:58 AM CT · landed 12:57 PM CT (scheduled time unknown)

Forecast issued Mon 2:00 PM ET · 1h after departure

Arrive at MDW more than 15 minutes late?

15% chance · ±1 pts – · 24h

HOW SURE WE ARE Very high. The odds now come almost entirely from live conditions.

What’s moving the odds

↑ Other factors

↑ 11am departures from MSP are often late

↑ MSP is busy at that time

↓ Mostly benign weather forecast at MSP

↓ Mostly benign weather forecast at MDW

Weather at each end

MSP (origin) Gusts17 kt Ceiling9,000 ft Visibility9 mi Precipnone

MDW (destination) Gusts8 kt Ceilingnone (clear) Visibility10+ mi Precipnone

How this resolves

Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.

Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.

9E 4820 · MSP → MDW

Odds over time