9E 5193 · AVL → ATL

took off 7:42 PM ET · expected to land 8:19 PM ET (scheduled 7:13 PM ET → 8:22 PM ET)

Forecast issued Mon 6:00 PM ET · 1h before departure

Arrive at ATL more than 15 minutes late?

19% chance · ±0 pts – · 24h

HOW SURE WE ARE High. The odds now come mostly from live FAA and airport data.

How late will it get to ATL?

LIVE

On time or early
81%
15–30 min late
18%
30 min–1 hour late
<1%
1–2 hours late
0%
Over 2 hours late
0%

Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%; while it’s in the air they come from the FAA’s arrival estimate.

What’s moving the odds

↑ Arrivals into ATL at that hour are often late

↑ 7pm departures from AVL are often late

↑ Later flights pick up delays from earlier in the day

↓ Cloud base down to 600 ft forecast at AVL that day

↓ Mondays in October are usually quieter than average

Weather at each end

AVL (origin) Gusts16 kt Ceiling600 ft Visibility10+ mi Precipnone

ATL (destination) Gusts9 kt Ceiling300 ft Visibility0.5 mi Precip0.03 in

How this resolves

Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.

Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.

9E 5193 · AVL → ATL

Odds over time

How late will it get to ATL?