Schedule: the flights that flew on Wednesday, Sep 30, re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.

ENDEAVOR · FLIGHT 9E 5193 SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE

Wednesday, October 7

9E 5193 · AVL → ATL

departs 7:14 PM ET · arrives 8:23 PM ET

Forecast issued Mon 12:00 PM ET · 55h before departure

Arrive at ATL more than 15 minutes late?

11% chance · ±2 pts – · 24h

HOW SURE WE ARE Moderate. The odds now blend history with early weather forecasts.

How late will it get to ATL?

On time or early
88%
15–30 min late
2%
30 min–1 hour late
5%
1–2 hours late
3%
Over 2 hours late
1%
Cancelled
1%

Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.

What’s moving the odds

↑ Arrivals into ATL at that hour are often late

↑ 7pm departures from AVL are often late

↑ Later flights pick up delays from earlier in the day

↓ Mostly benign weather forecast at ATL

↓ Wednesdays in October are usually quieter than average

Weather at each end

AVL (origin) Gusts5 kt Ceiling100 ft Visibility0.8 mi Precipnone

ATL (destination) Gusts11 kt Ceilingnone (clear) Visibility10+ mi Precipnone

How this resolves

Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.

Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.

9E 5193 · AVL → ATL

Odds over time

How late will it get to ATL?