9E 5253 · MSP → DSM

took off 8:15 PM CT · landed 8:59 PM CT (scheduled 8:19 PM CT → 9:34 PM CT)

Forecast issued Mon 10:00 PM ET · 1h after departure

Arrive at DSM more than 15 minutes late?

Not late chance · ±1 pts – · 24h

HOW SURE WE ARE Very high. The odds now come almost entirely from live conditions.

How late did it get to DSM?

RESOLVED

On time or early
✓
15–30 min late
–
30 min–1 hour late
–
1–2 hours late
–
Over 2 hours late
–

Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.

What’s moving the odds

↑ Later flights pick up delays from earlier in the day

↑ 8pm departures from MSP are often late

↑ Arrivals into DSM at that hour are often late

↓ Mostly benign weather forecast at MSP

↓ Mostly benign weather forecast at DSM

Weather at each end

MSP (origin) Gusts14 kt Ceiling8,500 ft Visibility9 mi Precipnone

DSM (destination) Gusts9 kt Ceilingnone (clear) Visibility6 mi Precipnone

How this resolves

Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.

Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.

9E 5253 · MSP → DSM

Odds over time

How late did it get to DSM?