9E 5296 · BUF → JFK

departs 3:45 PM ET · arrives 5:09 PM ET

Forecast issued Mon 3:00 PM ET · 1h before departure

Arrive at JFK more than 15 minutes late?

37% chance · ±0 pts – · 24h

HOW SURE WE ARE Very high. The odds now come almost entirely from live conditions.

How late will it get to JFK?

On time or early
62%
15–30 min late
20%
30 min–1 hour late
4%
1–2 hours late
10%
Over 2 hours late
3%
Cancelled
2%

Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.

What’s moving the odds

↑ JFK is prone to delays

↑ Arrivals into JFK at that hour are often late

↑ Later flights pick up delays from earlier in the day

↓ Mondays in October are usually quieter than average

↓ 9E's recent on-time record

Weather at each end

BUF (origin) Gusts31 kt Ceiling3,500 ft Visibility10+ mi Precipnone

JFK (destination) Gusts25 kt Ceiling600 ft Visibility6 mi Precip0.01 in

How this resolves

Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.

Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.

9E 5296 · BUF → JFK

Odds over time

How late will it get to JFK?