9E 5518 · MSP → ORF

took off 8:01 PM CT · landed 11:05 PM ET (scheduled 8:13 PM CT → 11:59 PM ET)

Forecast issued Mon 10:00 PM ET · 1h after departure

Arrive at ORF more than 15 minutes late?

Not late chance · ±0 pts – · 24h

HOW SURE WE ARE Very high. The odds now come almost entirely from live conditions.

How late did it get to ORF?

RESOLVED

On time or early
✓
15–30 min late
–
30 min–1 hour late
–
1–2 hours late
–
Over 2 hours late
–

Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.

What’s moving the odds

↑ 8pm departures from MSP are often late

↑ Arrivals into ORF at that hour are often late

↑ Later flights pick up delays from earlier in the day

↓ Mondays in October are usually quieter than average

↓ Mostly benign weather forecast at MSP

Weather at each end

MSP (origin) Gusts14 kt Ceiling8,500 ft Visibility9 mi Precipnone

ORF (destination) Gusts15 kt Ceiling700 ft Visibility4 mi Precip0.03 in

How this resolves

Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.

Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.

9E 5518 · MSP → ORF

Odds over time

How late did it get to ORF?