9E 5530 · MSP → RIC

took off 8:22 PM CT · expected to land 11:19 PM ET (scheduled 8:34 PM CT → 12:04 AM ET)

Forecast issued Mon 8:00 PM ET · 2h before departure

Arrive at RIC more than 15 minutes late?

0% chance · ±0 pts – · 24h

HOW SURE WE ARE High. The odds now come mostly from live FAA and airport data.

How late will it get to RIC?

LIVE

On time or early
100%
15–30 min late
0%
30 min–1 hour late
0%
1–2 hours late
0%
Over 2 hours late
0%

Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%; while it’s in the air they come from the FAA’s arrival estimate.

What’s moving the odds

↑ 8pm departures from MSP are often late

↑ This route's recent record

↑ Later flights pick up delays from earlier in the day

↓ MSP usually runs smoothly

↓ Mondays in October are usually quieter than average

Weather at each end

MSP (origin) Gusts14 kt Ceiling8,500 ft Visibility9 mi Precipnone

RIC (destination) Gusts6 kt Ceiling600 ft Visibility6 mi Precipnone

How this resolves

Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.

Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.

9E 5530 · MSP → RIC

Odds over time

How late will it get to RIC?