Schedule: a typical summer Monday (the flights of Jul 27, 2026), re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.

AMERICAN · FLIGHT AA 1181 SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE

Monday, October 5 Tomorrow

AA 1181 · PHL → MIA

departs 7:55 PM ET · arrives 11:09 PM ET

Forecast issued Sun 5:00 AM ET · 39h before departure

Arrive at MIA more than 15 minutes late?

18% chance · ±3 pts −4 pts · 24h

HOW SURE WE ARE Moderate. The odds now blend history with early weather forecasts.

How late will it get to MIA?

On time or early
80%
15–30 min late
4%
30 min–1 hour late
6%
1–2 hours late
5%
Over 2 hours late
3%
Cancelled
2%

Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.

What’s moving the odds

↑ Later flights pick up delays from earlier in the day

↑ Arrivals into MIA at that hour are often late

↑ 7pm departures from PHL are often late

↓ Mondays in October are usually quieter than average

↓ Cloud base down to 333 ft forecast at PHL that day

Weather at each end

PHL (origin) Gusts20 kt Ceiling333 ft Visibility6.66667 mi Precipnone

MIA (destination) Gusts13 kt Ceilingnone (clear) Visibility10+ mi Precip0.02 in

How this resolves

Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.

Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.

AA 1181 · PHL → MIA

Odds over time

How late will it get to MIA?