AA 1227 · AUS → MIA

departs 4:30 PM CT · arrives 8:28 PM ET

Forecast issued Mon 1:00 PM ET · 4h before departure

Arrive at MIA more than 15 minutes late?

37% chance · ±0 pts −4 pts · 24h

HOW SURE WE ARE High. The odds now come mostly from live FAA and airport data.

How late will it get to MIA?

On time or early
63%
15–30 min late
19%
30 min–1 hour late
7%
1–2 hours late
8%
Over 2 hours late
3%
Cancelled
<1%

Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.

What’s moving the odds

↑ AA's recent on-time record

↑ 4pm departures from AUS are often late

↑ Arrivals into MIA at that hour are often late

↓ Mondays in October are usually quieter than average

↓ Mostly benign weather forecast at MIA

Weather at each end

AUS (origin) Gusts22 kt Ceiling3,200 ft Visibility10+ mi Precipnone

MIA (destination) Gusts17 kt Ceiling6,000 ft Visibility10+ mi Precipnone

How this resolves

Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.

Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.

AA 1227 · AUS → MIA

Odds over time

How late will it get to MIA?