AA 1391 · MIA → STT

departs 12:03 PM ET · arrives 2:55 PM AST

Forecast issued Mon 7:00 AM ET · 5h before departure

Arrive at STT more than 15 minutes late?

20% chance · ±0 pts −2 pts · 24h

HOW SURE WE ARE High. The odds now come mostly from live FAA and airport data.

How late will it get to STT?

On time or early
80%
15–30 min late
6%
30 min–1 hour late
6%
1–2 hours late
4%
Over 2 hours late
3%
Cancelled
<1%

Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.

What’s moving the odds

↑ AA's recent on-time record

↑ 12pm departures from MIA are often late

↑ This flight has been late 26% of the time recently

↓ Mondays in October are usually quieter than average

↓ Mostly benign weather forecast at MIA

Weather at each end

MIA (origin) Gusts13 kt Ceilingnone (clear) Visibility10+ mi Precipnone

STT (destination) Gusts21 kt Ceiling6,000 ft Visibility10+ mi Precipnone

How this resolves

Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.

Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.

AA 1391 · MIA → STT

Odds over time

How late will it get to STT?