AA 1393 · CLT → DSM

departs 10:32 PM ET · arrives 12:10 AM CT

Forecast issued Mon 5:00 AM ET · 18h before departure

Arrive at DSM more than 15 minutes late?

30% chance · ±2 pts – · 24h

HOW SURE WE ARE Good. The odds now lean mostly on firmed-up weather forecasts.

How late will it get to DSM?

On time or early
70%
15–30 min late
16%
30 min–1 hour late
7%
1–2 hours late
6%
Over 2 hours late
1%
Cancelled
<1%

Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.

What’s moving the odds

↑ AA's recent on-time record

↑ 10pm departures from CLT are often late

↑ Arrivals into DSM at that hour are often late

↓ Mostly benign weather forecast at CLT

↓ Mondays in October are usually quieter than average

Weather at each end

CLT (origin) Gusts13 kt Ceiling4,400 ft Visibility8 mi Precipnone

DSM (destination) Gusts10 kt Ceilingnone (clear) Visibility7 mi Precipnone

How this resolves

Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.

Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.

AA 1393 · CLT → DSM

Odds over time

How late will it get to DSM?