Schedule: a typical summer Monday (the flights of Jul 27, 2026), re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.

AMERICAN · FLIGHT AA 1414 SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE

Monday, October 5

AA 1414 · DFW → DCA

departs 11:54 AM CT · arrives 3:59 PM ET

Forecast issued Fri 5:00 PM ET · 68h before departure

Arrive at DCA more than 15 minutes late?

20% chance · ±1 pts −1 pt · 24h

HOW SURE WE ARE Moderate. The odds now blend history with early weather forecasts.

How late will it get to DCA?

On time or early
80%
15–30 min late
7%
30 min–1 hour late
6%
1–2 hours late
4%
Over 2 hours late
2%
Cancelled
<1%

Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.

What’s moving the odds

↑ Arrivals into DCA at that hour are often late

↑ 11am departures from DFW are often late

↑ AA's recent on-time record

↓ Mostly benign weather forecast at DFW

↓ Mondays in October are usually quieter than average

Weather at each end

DFW (origin) Gusts14 kt Ceilingnone (clear) Visibility10+ mi Precipnone

DCA (destination) Gusts18 kt Ceiling2,000 ft Visibility10+ mi Precipnone

How this resolves

Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.

Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.

AA 1414 · DFW → DCA

Odds over time

How late will it get to DCA?