Schedule: a typical summer Monday (the flights of Jul 27, 2026), re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.

AMERICAN · FLIGHT AA 1427 SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE

Monday, October 5

AA 1427 · MIA → AUS

departs 10:10 PM ET · arrives 11:59 PM CT

Forecast issued Sat 3:00 AM ET · 67h before departure

Arrive at AUS more than 15 minutes late?

29% chance · ±7 pts – · 24h

HOW SURE WE ARE Moderate. The odds now blend history with early weather forecasts.

How late will it get to AUS?

On time or early
71%
15–30 min late
8%
30 min–1 hour late
11%
1–2 hours late
6%
Over 2 hours late
3%
Cancelled
<1%

Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.

What’s moving the odds

↑ This flight has been late 37% of the time recently

↑ Later flights pick up delays from earlier in the day

↑ 10pm departures from MIA are often late

↓ Mondays in October are usually quieter than average

↓ Mostly benign weather forecast at AUS

Weather at each end

MIA (origin) Gusts14 kt Ceilingnone (clear) Visibility10+ mi Precip0.03 in

AUS (destination) Gusts21 kt Ceiling8,000 ft Visibility10+ mi Precipnone

How this resolves

Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.

Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.

AA 1427 · MIA → AUS

Odds over time

How late will it get to AUS?