Schedule: a typical summer Monday (the flights of Jul 27, 2026), re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.

AMERICAN · FLIGHT AA 1473 SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE

Monday, October 5

AA 1473 · PIT → DCA

departs 5:44 PM ET · arrives 6:59 PM ET

Forecast issued Sat 5:00 PM ET · 49h before departure

Arrive at DCA more than 15 minutes late?

33% chance · ±0 pts −2 pts · 24h

HOW SURE WE ARE Moderate. The odds now blend history with early weather forecasts.

How late will it get to DCA?

On time or early
67%
15–30 min late
15%
30 min–1 hour late
6%
1–2 hours late
7%
Over 2 hours late
5%
Cancelled
<1%

Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.

What’s moving the odds

↑ This flight has been late 42% of the time recently

↑ Arrivals into DCA at that hour are often late

↑ Later flights pick up delays from earlier in the day

↓ Mostly benign weather forecast at PIT

↓ PIT usually runs smoothly

Weather at each end

PIT (origin) Gusts17 kt Ceiling2,700 ft Visibility10+ mi Precipnone

DCA (destination) Gusts20 kt Ceiling4,600 ft Visibility0.866667 mi Precipnone

How this resolves

Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.

Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.

AA 1473 · PIT → DCA

Odds over time

How late will it get to DCA?