Tracked live by the FAA, but its flight plan was first seen after takeoff, so we don't know the scheduled time and can't say whether it's late.

AMERICAN · FLIGHT AA 1637 LANDED 5:19 PM CT, ~18 MIN LATE · SCHEDULED TIME UNKNOWN

Monday, October 5 Yesterday

AA 1637 · DCA → ORD

took off 4:47 PM ET · landed 5:19 PM CT (scheduled time unknown)

Forecast issued Mon 10:00 PM ET · 5h after departure

Arrive at ORD more than 15 minutes late?

41% chance · ±0 pts +18 pts · 24h

HOW SURE WE ARE Very high. The odds now come almost entirely from live conditions.

What’s moving the odds

↑ Arrivals into ORD at that hour are often late

↑ AA's recent on-time record

↑ 4pm departures from DCA are often late

↓ Mostly benign weather forecast at ORD

↓ Mondays in October are usually quieter than average

Weather at each end

DCA (origin) Gusts21 kt Ceiling200 ft Visibility0.25 mi Precipnone

ORD (destination) Gusts9 kt Ceilingnone (clear) Visibility10+ mi Precipnone

How this resolves

Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.

Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.

AA 1637 · DCA → ORD

Odds over time