Schedule: a typical summer Monday (the flights of Jul 27, 2026), re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.

AMERICAN · FLIGHT AA 1643 SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE

Monday, October 5

AA 1643 · LGA → MIA

departs 1:00 PM ET · arrives 4:14 PM ET

Forecast issued Fri 5:00 PM ET · 68h before departure

Arrive at MIA more than 15 minutes late?

22% chance · ±1 pts +1 pt · 24h

HOW SURE WE ARE Moderate. The odds now blend history with early weather forecasts.

How late will it get to MIA?

On time or early
77%
15–30 min late
6%
30 min–1 hour late
8%
1–2 hours late
2%
Over 2 hours late
6%
Cancelled
<1%

Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.

What’s moving the odds

↑ This flight has been late 30% of the time recently

↑ 1pm departures from LGA are often late

↑ Arrivals into MIA at that hour are often late

↓ Mondays in October are usually quieter than average

↓ LGA is quiet at that time

Weather at each end

LGA (origin) Gusts23 kt Ceiling300 ft Visibility1 mi Precip0.03 in

MIA (destination) Gusts15 kt Ceilingnone (clear) Visibility10+ mi Precipnone

How this resolves

Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.

Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.

AA 1643 · LGA → MIA

Odds over time

How late will it get to MIA?