Schedule: a typical summer Monday (the flights of Jul 27, 2026), re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.

AMERICAN · FLIGHT AA 1781 SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE

Monday, October 5

AA 1781 · CLT → DTW

departs 11:15 AM ET · arrives 1:01 PM ET

Forecast issued Sat 1:00 AM ET · 58h before departure

Arrive at DTW more than 15 minutes late?

14% chance · ±1 pts – · 24h

HOW SURE WE ARE Moderate. The odds now blend history with early weather forecasts.

How late will it get to DTW?

On time or early
85%
15–30 min late
3%
30 min–1 hour late
6%
1–2 hours late
3%
Over 2 hours late
2%
Cancelled
<1%

Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.

What’s moving the odds

↑ AA's recent on-time record

↑ 11am departures from CLT are often late

↑ This flight has been late 20% of the time recently

↓ Mondays in October are usually quieter than average

↓ Mostly benign weather forecast at DTW

Weather at each end

CLT (origin) Gusts14 kt Ceiling200 ft Visibility0.4 mi Precip0.16 in

DTW (destination) Gusts17 kt Ceilingnone (clear) Visibility10+ mi Precipnone

How this resolves

Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.

Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.

AA 1781 · CLT → DTW

Odds over time

How late will it get to DTW?