Schedule: a typical summer Monday (the flights of Jul 27, 2026), re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.

AMERICAN · FLIGHT AA 1811 SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE

Monday, October 5

AA 1811 · EWR → CLT

departs 7:29 PM ET · arrives 9:32 PM ET

Forecast issued Sat 12:00 AM ET · 68h before departure

Arrive at CLT more than 15 minutes late?

42% chance · ±11 pts – · 24h

HOW SURE WE ARE Moderate. The odds now blend history with early weather forecasts.

How late will it get to CLT?

On time or early
57%
15–30 min late
14%
30 min–1 hour late
8%
1–2 hours late
13%
Over 2 hours late
6%
Cancelled
2%

Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.

What’s moving the odds

↑ EWR is prone to delays

↑ Arrivals into CLT at that hour are often late

↑ Later flights pick up delays from earlier in the day

↓ Mondays in October are usually quieter than average

↓ Cloud base down to 200 ft, visibility down to 0.6 mi forecast at CLT that day

Weather at each end

EWR (origin) Gusts25 kt Ceiling300 ft Visibility0.6 mi Precip0.02 in

CLT (destination) Gusts14 kt Ceiling200 ft Visibility0.6 mi Precip0.16 in

How this resolves

Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.

Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.

AA 1811 · EWR → CLT

Odds over time

How late will it get to CLT?