Schedule: a typical summer Monday (the flights of Jul 27, 2026), re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.

AMERICAN · FLIGHT AA 1819 SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE

Monday, October 5

AA 1819 · CLT → EWR

departs 10:43 AM ET · arrives 12:37 PM ET

Forecast issued Fri 3:00 PM ET · 68h before departure

Arrive at EWR more than 15 minutes late?

13% chance · ±2 pts +0 pts · 24h

HOW SURE WE ARE Moderate. The odds now blend history with early weather forecasts.

How late will it get to EWR?

On time or early
86%
15–30 min late
4%
30 min–1 hour late
4%
1–2 hours late
1%
Over 2 hours late
2%
Cancelled
1%

Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.

What’s moving the odds

↑ Cloud base down to 200 ft, visibility down to 0.5 mi, 0.4 in of rain forecast at CLT that day

↓ 10am departures from CLT are usually not late

↓ Mondays in October are usually quieter than average

Weather at each end

CLT (origin) Gusts14 kt Ceiling200 ft Visibility0.5 mi Precip0.32 in

EWR (destination) Gusts21 kt Ceiling300 ft Visibility1 mi Precip0.03 in

How this resolves

Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.

Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.

AA 1819 · CLT → EWR

Odds over time

How late will it get to EWR?