AA 1886 · MIA → BOS

departs 12:44 PM ET · arrives 4:18 PM ET

Forecast issued Sun 9:00 PM ET · 16h before departure

Arrive at BOS more than 15 minutes late?

27% chance · ±4 pts – · 24h

HOW SURE WE ARE Good. The odds now lean mostly on firmed-up weather forecasts.

How late will it get to BOS?

On time or early
72%
15–30 min late
6%
30 min–1 hour late
14%
1–2 hours late
3%
Over 2 hours late
4%
Cancelled
1%

Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.

What’s moving the odds

↑ AA's recent on-time record

↑ Arrivals into BOS at that hour are often late

↑ 12pm departures from MIA are often late

↓ Mondays in October are usually quieter than average

↓ Gusts to 25 kt, cloud base down to 300 ft forecast at BOS that day

Weather at each end

MIA (origin) Gusts13 kt Ceilingnone (clear) Visibility10+ mi Precipnone

BOS (destination) Gusts25 kt Ceiling200 ft Visibility10+ mi Precipnone

How this resolves

Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.

Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.

AA 1886 · MIA → BOS

Odds over time

How late will it get to BOS?