Tracked live by the FAA, but its flight plan was first seen after takeoff, so we don't know the scheduled time and can't say whether it's late.

AMERICAN · FLIGHT AA 2041 SCHEDULED · SCHEDULED TIME UNKNOWN

Monday, October 5 Today

AA 2041 · TPA → MIA

departs 2:34 PM ET · arrives 3:17 PM ET

Forecast issued Mon 12:00 PM ET · 3h before departure

Arrive at MIA more than 15 minutes late?

39% chance · ±0 pts +13 pts · 24h

HOW SURE WE ARE High. The odds now come mostly from live FAA and airport data.

What’s moving the odds

↑ AA's recent on-time record

↑ Mostly benign weather forecast at TPA

↑ 2pm departures from TPA are often late

↓ Mondays in October are usually quieter than average

↓ Mostly benign weather forecast at MIA

Weather at each end

TPA (origin) Gusts8 kt Ceiling5,500 ft Visibility10+ mi Precip0.09 in

MIA (destination) Gusts10 kt Ceiling6,000 ft Visibility10+ mi Precipnone

How this resolves

Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.

Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.

AA 2041 · TPA → MIA

Odds over time