AA 2243 · PHL → MIA

departs 1:22 PM ET · arrives 4:18 PM ET

Forecast issued Sun 5:00 PM ET · 20h before departure

Arrive at MIA more than 15 minutes late?

31% chance · ±5 pts – · 24h

HOW SURE WE ARE Good. The odds now lean mostly on firmed-up weather forecasts.

How late will it get to MIA?

On time or early
68%
15–30 min late
17%
30 min–1 hour late
7%
1–2 hours late
4%
Over 2 hours late
3%
Cancelled
2%

Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.

What’s moving the odds

↑ AA's recent on-time record

↑ 1pm departures from PHL are often late

↑ Arrivals into MIA at that hour are often late

↓ Mondays in October are usually quieter than average

↓ Cloud base down to 300 ft forecast at PHL that day

Weather at each end

PHL (origin) Gusts20 kt Ceiling300 ft Visibility9 mi Precipnone

MIA (destination) Gusts12 kt Ceilingnone (clear) Visibility10+ mi Precip0.02 in

How this resolves

Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.

Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.

AA 2243 · PHL → MIA

Odds over time

How late will it get to MIA?