Schedule: a typical summer Monday (the flights of Jul 27, 2026), re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.

AMERICAN · FLIGHT AA 2278 SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE

Monday, October 5

AA 2278 · CLT → PBI

departs 7:23 AM ET · arrives 9:17 AM ET

Forecast issued Fri 3:00 PM ET · 64h before departure

Arrive at PBI more than 15 minutes late?

18% chance · ±3 pts +7 pts · 24h

HOW SURE WE ARE Moderate. The odds now blend history with early weather forecasts.

How late will it get to PBI?

On time or early
81%
15–30 min late
10%
30 min–1 hour late
3%
1–2 hours late
3%
Over 2 hours late
2%
Cancelled
1%

Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.

What’s moving the odds

↑ Cloud base down to 200 ft, visibility down to 0.5 mi, 0.4 in of rain forecast at CLT that day

↑ PBI is prone to delays

↑ AA's recent on-time record

↓ Early flights usually leave on time

↓ Mostly benign weather forecast at PBI

Weather at each end

CLT (origin) Gusts14 kt Ceiling200 ft Visibility0.5 mi Precip0.32 in

PBI (destination) Gusts11 kt Ceilingnone (clear) Visibility10+ mi Precipnone

How this resolves

Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.

Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.

AA 2278 · CLT → PBI

Odds over time

How late will it get to PBI?