Schedule: a typical summer Monday (the flights of Jul 27, 2026), re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.

AMERICAN · FLIGHT AA 2406 SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE

Monday, October 5

AA 2406 · MIA → RDU

departs 2:34 PM ET · arrives 4:50 PM ET

Forecast issued Fri 5:00 PM ET · 70h before departure

Arrive at RDU more than 15 minutes late?

20% chance · ±2 pts +0 pts · 24h

HOW SURE WE ARE Moderate. The odds now blend history with early weather forecasts.

How late will it get to RDU?

On time or early
79%
15–30 min late
5%
30 min–1 hour late
5%
1–2 hours late
7%
Over 2 hours late
3%
Cancelled
<1%

Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.

What’s moving the odds

↑ This flight has been late 33% of the time recently

↑ 2pm departures from MIA are often late

↑ Arrivals into RDU at that hour are often late

↓ Mondays in October are usually quieter than average

↓ RDU usually runs smoothly

Weather at each end

MIA (origin) Gusts15 kt Ceilingnone (clear) Visibility10+ mi Precipnone

RDU (destination) Gusts11 kt Ceiling200 ft Visibility0.6 mi Precip0.31 in

How this resolves

Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.

Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.

AA 2406 · MIA → RDU

Odds over time

How late will it get to RDU?