AA 2461 · DFW → MIA

departs 12:26 PM CT · arrives 4:23 PM ET

Forecast issued Sun 9:00 PM ET · 16h before departure

Arrive at MIA more than 15 minutes late?

31% chance · ±3 pts – · 24h

HOW SURE WE ARE Good. The odds now lean mostly on firmed-up weather forecasts.

How late will it get to MIA?

On time or early
68%
15–30 min late
12%
30 min–1 hour late
13%
1–2 hours late
3%
Over 2 hours late
3%
Cancelled
1%

Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.

What’s moving the odds

↑ AA's recent on-time record

↑ Arrivals into MIA at that hour are often late

↑ 12pm departures from DFW are often late

↓ Mondays in October are usually quieter than average

↓ Mostly benign weather forecast at DFW

Weather at each end

DFW (origin) Gusts15 kt Ceilingnone (clear) Visibility10+ mi Precipnone

MIA (destination) Gusts13 kt Ceilingnone (clear) Visibility10+ mi Precipnone

How this resolves

Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.

Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.

AA 2461 · DFW → MIA

Odds over time

How late will it get to MIA?