Schedule: a typical summer Monday (the flights of Jul 27, 2026), re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.

AMERICAN · FLIGHT AA 2465 SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE

Monday, October 5

AA 2465 · SAN → CLT

departs 1:19 PM PT · arrives 9:20 PM ET

Forecast issued Sat 12:00 AM ET · 64h before departure

Arrive at CLT more than 15 minutes late?

26% chance · ±2 pts – · 24h

HOW SURE WE ARE Moderate. The odds now blend history with early weather forecasts.

How late will it get to CLT?

On time or early
73%
15–30 min late
7%
30 min–1 hour late
8%
1–2 hours late
8%
Over 2 hours late
2%
Cancelled
<1%

Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.

What’s moving the odds

↑ Arrivals into CLT at that hour are often late

↑ 1pm departures from SAN are often late

↑ SAN is prone to delays

↓ Mondays in October are usually quieter than average

↓ Mostly benign weather forecast at SAN

Weather at each end

SAN (origin) Gusts15 kt Ceilingnone (clear) Visibility10+ mi Precipnone

CLT (destination) Gusts14 kt Ceiling200 ft Visibility0.6 mi Precip0.16 in

How this resolves

Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.

Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.

AA 2465 · SAN → CLT

Odds over time

How late will it get to CLT?