AA 2525 · LGA → MIA

took off 4:50 PM ET · landed 7:23 PM ET (scheduled 4:15 PM ET → 7:21 PM ET)

Forecast issued Mon 8:00 PM ET · 4h after departure

Arrive at MIA more than 15 minutes late?

Not late chance · ±0 pts +15 pts · 24h

HOW SURE WE ARE Very high. The odds now come almost entirely from live conditions.

How late did it get to MIA?

RESOLVED

On time or early
✓
15–30 min late
–
30 min–1 hour late
–
1–2 hours late
–
Over 2 hours late
–

Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.

What’s moving the odds

↑ 4pm departures from LGA are often late

↑ AA's recent on-time record

↑ LGA is prone to delays

↓ Mondays in October are usually quieter than average

↓ Mostly benign weather forecast at MIA

Weather at each end

LGA (origin) Gusts32 kt Ceiling1,300 ft Visibility10+ mi Precipnone

MIA (destination) Gusts18 kt Ceiling6,000 ft Visibility10+ mi Precipnone

How this resolves

Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.

Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.

AA 2525 · LGA → MIA

Odds over time

How late did it get to MIA?