Schedule: a typical summer Monday (the flights of Jul 27, 2026), re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.

AMERICAN · FLIGHT AA 2569 SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE

Monday, October 5

AA 2569 · CLT → ILM

departs 7:17 AM ET · arrives 8:19 AM ET

Forecast issued Sat 11:00 AM ET · 44h before departure

Arrive at ILM more than 15 minutes late?

19% chance · ±1 pts +0 pts · 24h

HOW SURE WE ARE Moderate. The odds now blend history with early weather forecasts.

How late will it get to ILM?

On time or early
80%
15–30 min late
9%
30 min–1 hour late
6%
1–2 hours late
2%
Over 2 hours late
1%
Cancelled
1%

Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.

What’s moving the odds

↑ Cloud base down to 200 ft, visibility down to 2 mi, 0.9 in of rain forecast at ILM that day

↑ Other factors

↑ AA's recent on-time record

↓ Early flights usually leave on time

↓ Arrivals into ILM at that hour are usually not late

Weather at each end

CLT (origin) Gusts15 kt Ceiling200 ft Visibility0.5 mi Precipnone

ILM (destination) Gusts13 kt Ceiling200 ft Visibility2 mi Precip0.90 in

How this resolves

Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.

Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.

AA 2569 · CLT → ILM

Odds over time

How late will it get to ILM?