AA 2584 · SRQ → DCA

departs 12:05 PM ET · arrives 2:33 PM ET

Forecast issued Sun 3:00 PM ET · 21h before departure

Arrive at DCA more than 15 minutes late?

31% chance · ±2 pts – · 24h

HOW SURE WE ARE Good. The odds now lean mostly on firmed-up weather forecasts.

How late will it get to DCA?

On time or early
66%
15–30 min late
15%
30 min–1 hour late
9%
1–2 hours late
2%
Over 2 hours late
4%
Cancelled
3%

Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.

What’s moving the odds

↑ AA's recent on-time record

↑ 12pm departures from SRQ are often late

↑ Arrivals into DCA at that hour are often late

↓ Mondays in October are usually quieter than average

↓ Cloud base down to 200 ft forecast at DCA that day

Weather at each end

SRQ (origin) Gusts10 kt Ceiling7,000 ft Visibility9 mi Precip0.08 in

DCA (destination) Gusts19 kt Ceiling200 ft Visibility3 mi Precipnone

How this resolves

Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.

Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.

AA 2584 · SRQ → DCA

Odds over time

How late will it get to DCA?