AA 2753 · CLT → TPA

departs 4:30 PM ET · arrives 6:20 PM ET

Forecast issued Sun 11:00 PM ET · 18h before departure

Arrive at TPA more than 15 minutes late?

33% chance · ±7 pts – · 24h

HOW SURE WE ARE Good. The odds now lean mostly on firmed-up weather forecasts.

How late will it get to TPA?

On time or early
66%
15–30 min late
11%
30 min–1 hour late
12%
1–2 hours late
7%
Over 2 hours late
3%
Cancelled
2%

Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.

What’s moving the odds

↑ AA's recent on-time record

↑ Arrivals into TPA at that hour are often late

↑ 4pm departures from CLT are often late

↓ Mondays in October are usually quieter than average

↓ Mostly benign weather forecast at CLT

Weather at each end

CLT (origin) Gusts12 kt Ceiling2,700 ft Visibility7 mi Precipnone

TPA (destination) Gusts8 kt Ceiling7,000 ft Visibility10+ mi Precip0.05 in

How this resolves

Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.

Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.

AA 2753 · CLT → TPA

Odds over time

How late will it get to TPA?